Insights / Case study
Testing the market: a case study
In short
A market test is a confidential way to find out what buyers think of your business, and what it could be worth, before you decide whether to sell. It takes a couple of weeks, needs almost none of your time, and commits you to nothing.
Why run a market test?
Deciding when to sell is one of the hardest calls a founder makes. Maybe you have a number in mind that would make you sell. Maybe you're wondering whether a sale is realistic at all. Either way, you don't want to launch a full process only to find out the timing was wrong.
Benchmarks and multiples help, but they miss what buyers actually care about, especially under $50M ARR, where valuations are less formulaic. Talking to buyers directly shows their real appetite and the concerns no dataset will surface.
Clarity, without any obligation or commitment.
How it works
A small group of private equity firms and strategic buyers that fit your sector
Confidential, anonymous conversations. No materials, nothing signalled to the market
Within a couple of weeks, with almost none of your time
Our relationships and active network mean we can reach the right buyers quickly. You keep running the business while we do the talking.
What you learn
Most founders only hear this once they're already in a formal process, when it's often too late to change course. A market test gives it to you while there's still time to act.
A real example: a $10M+ ARR martech SaaS business
Here's a recent market test run by our team. The figures below are specific to this business.
Martech SaaS, $10M+ ARR, solid growth and strong margins
How close is the business to the founders' target price, and how do buyers see it?
Almost no time from the founders, and fully confidential
Feedback from 10+ private equity and strategic buyers within a couple of weeks: a valuation range, and 3 actionable points to work on ahead of a formal process
What buyers said
The feedback was largely positive: there could even be an opportunity to sell now, though probably not at the founders' target price. One concern kept coming back, the company's retention, which several buyers found hard to underwrite.
Impressive growth, but the gross retention profile makes it hard for us to get comfortable. We typically focus on 85%+ gross revenue retention across our martech portfolio.
ABuyer AAnonymised
There's a case for 5–6x ARR today. But to get to 8–9x, you'd need lower churn and a strong case for defensibility.
BBuyer BAnonymised
What the founders did next
With a clearer timeline, they went straight to work on what buyers had flagged:
- better churn reporting, with more accurate and actionable insight
- stronger onboarding and customer success, to reduce churn
- more product stickiness and higher switching costs
Without the pressure of a live sale, they could take their time, and go to market later from a stronger position.
Is a market test right for you?
If you're considering a sale and want clarity before committing to a full process, yes. You get real buyer feedback, a clearer view of your valuation and your blind spots, and relationships with buyers, without disrupting growth.
We don't wait until everything's perfect to get involved. Whether a sale is months or years away, we'll help you understand your options and what a great outcome could look like.
Thinking about an exit?
Let's talk about your business.
Ready to sell or still years away, the earlier we talk, the better.
Last updated July 2025 · Written by Aïda Aït-Ahmed, Co-Founder, Nextoria